Warsaw Primary Market in Q2 2026: Higher Supply Has Not Slowed Sales

Warsaw Primary Market in Q2 2026: Higher Supply Has Not Slowed Sales

Warsaw’s residential market remains one of the most liquid, and at the same time one of the most demanding, housing markets in Poland. CBRE data for Q2 2026 point to an interesting balance: sales moderated compared with the exceptionally strong start to the year, yet they remained above the long-term average. At the same time, developers significantly increased new supply, bringing the number of available units to more than 16.000. Despite the broader choice available to buyers, there is still no clear downward pressure on prices.

This analysis is based on the CBRE Research report “Living – Poland Warsaw Q2 2026”, which uses market data from Tabelaofert.pl.

Sales moderated after a strong start to the year, but market activity remains robust

In Q2 2026, 3,840 apartments were sold on Warsaw’s primary residential market. This represented a 9.4% quarter-on-quarter decline, although this figure can be misleading without considering the exceptionally strong performance recorded during the first three months of the year.

A longer-term comparison provides a more accurate picture of the market’s underlying condition. As CBRE notes, sales in Q2 were still 4.6% above the average quarterly sales volume recorded over the past five years, which stands at approximately 3.670 apartments.

An analysis of the four consecutive quarters provides an even clearer view. Between Q3 2025 and the end of Q2 2026, 15.986 new apartments were sold in Warsaw, representing an increase of 38.5% compared with the corresponding period a year earlier.

This is an important signal from an investor’s perspective. Warsaw’s residential market is not experiencing a collapse in demand. Rather, the data point to a normalisation following an exceptionally strong start to the year, while absorption of new housing remains high.

Supply is returning to the market

More pronounced changes were recorded on the supply side.

In Q2, developers launched 4.753 apartments for sale, an increase of as much as 66.8% compared with the previous quarter.

This sharp rise should, however, be interpreted with some caution. To a large extent, it reflects the low base recorded in Q1, when the number of new projects and project phases launched for sale remained limited.

Data covering a longer period confirm this interpretation. During the four quarters from Q3 2025 to Q2 2026, developers introduced 15.395 apartments to the market, which was 1.6% fewer than in the corresponding period a year earlier.

From an investment perspective, Q2 should therefore not be viewed as the beginning of an aggressive expansion in supply. It is more accurately interpreted as a return of development activity following a quieter start to the year.

More than 16.000 apartments available for sale

The rebound in new launches was directly reflected in the size of the available offer.

At the end of June 2026, 16.345 apartments were available on Warsaw’s primary market, representing an increase of 7.1% compared with the end of the previous quarter.

This level of supply gives buyers significantly greater choice in terms of location, standard, stage of construction and price.

Even more relevant from a market assessment perspective is the structure of this supply.

As many as 3.344 apartments were completed but remained unsold, representing 20.5% of the total offer. CBRE notes that this share remains at a record level.

The high proportion of completed apartments reflects the significant number of residential projects delivered around the turn of 2025 and 2026. Importantly, CBRE expects this indicator to remain elevated in the coming quarters as additional projects reach completion.

For the market, this primarily means stronger competition in locations where several projects with a similar profile are targeting the same customer group. In such segments, competition for buyers may be considerably stronger than Warsaw-wide averages would suggest.

Higher supply has not stopped price growth

Despite the growing number of apartments available for sale, asking prices remain high.

At the end of Q2 2026, the average asking price of a new apartment in Warsaw stood at PLN 19.405 gross per sqm. This was 0.2% higher than in the previous quarter and 6.9% higher year on year.

This is particularly significant when compared with inflation. CBRE notes that annual inflation stood at 2.5% in June 2026, meaning that nominal growth in new-build apartment prices remained clearly above the inflation rate.

The average price of apartments actually sold amounted to PLN 18.585 per sqm, representing a 6.1% year-on-year increase.

The situation was slightly different for apartments entering the market for the first time. Their average price in Q2 stood at PLN 18.593 per sqm, which was 8.6% lower than in the previous quarter.

This decline should not, however, be automatically interpreted as a change in the broader pricing trend. Average prices are strongly influenced by the structure of new supply, including location, market segment, apartment size and the share of premium projects.

CBRE also notes that five unusually large projects with exceptionally high prices were excluded from the price calculations, as they could otherwise have significantly inflated the average and distorted the overall market picture.

Sales performance matters increasingly more than headline pricing

CBRE data provide a clear picture of the current stage of the residential cycle.

Warsaw is not entering a conventional price correction phase, despite the growing number of apartments available for sale and the high share of completed but unsold units.

This does not mean, however, that sellers have the same negotiating power as they did several years ago.

As apartment availability increases, the performance gap between individual projects may widen. Location, product quality, apartment layouts, common-area standards, stage of construction and positioning strategy are likely to play an increasingly important role in determining the pace of sales.

CBRE also expects attractive promotional offers to continue appearing on the market, particularly for apartments that have remained available for longer periods.

This means that greater price flexibility may be visible at the level of individual projects, even while the average asking price across Warsaw remains stable or continues to increase.

Financing conditions remain a key driver of demand

Financing remains another crucial element influencing the market.

According to CBRE, since May 2025 the Monetary Policy Council has reduced interest rates by a total of 2 percentage points. The most recent cut took place in March 2026, while from April through July the National Bank of Poland’s reference rate remained unchanged at 3.75%.

Lower interest rates improve access to mortgage financing and increase the purchasing power of some households. Combined with the large number of apartments that are either completed or at an advanced stage of construction, this creates an environment supportive of continued buyer activity.

At the same time, financing conditions remain one of the most important variables shaping market demand. Changes in expectations regarding borrowing costs can translate relatively quickly into changes in sales volumes.

Why prices may continue to rise

At first glance, a larger available offer and a high share of completed but unsold apartments could be expected to slow price growth. CBRE, however, points to a mechanism that may work in the opposite direction.

If lower-priced apartments are gradually absorbed from the market and replaced by newly launched projects positioned at higher price levels, the average asking price may continue to rise even without broad-based price increases across existing projects.

At the same time, development costs and new regulatory requirements may add further cost pressure, affecting both decisions to launch new projects and their overall economics.

For this reason, CBRE expects that the upward trend in average asking prices may continue, despite higher supply and promotional offers appearing in selected projects.

A more selective market rather than a weak one

The most important conclusion from the Q2 data is not that the Warsaw market is weakening, but that it is becoming increasingly selective.

Sales remain above the five-year average, while the total number of apartments sold over the past four quarters is significantly higher than a year earlier. At the same time, available supply is once again increasing, and more than one in five apartments currently offered for sale has already been completed.

In this environment, the question of whether “the Warsaw market is rising or falling” becomes less relevant. A more important issue is which projects are able to maintain strong absorption despite increasing competition.

For developers, this increases the importance of product quality and precise alignment between pricing and local demand. For investors, it reinforces the need for a more detailed analysis of individual submarkets rather than relying solely on Warsaw-wide averages.

For buyers, the current environment may, somewhat paradoxically, create a more favourable negotiating position: there is more choice, the number of completed apartments is high and some sellers may be more willing to offer discounts or additional benefits. This does not, however, change the broader picture of the market – Warsaw remains an expensive, liquid and resilient residential market, where higher supply has so far not translated into a systemic price correction.

Source: CBRE Research, Living – Poland Warsaw Q2 2026. Market data used in the report: Tabelaofert.pl.