Poland’s Residential Market 2026: From Rapid Growth to Smarter Investment

Based on JLL’s “Living Sector in Poland” report from April 2026, it is clear that the Polish residential market has entered a more selective phase. This is not, however, a market in retreat. The data points instead to a transition from a phase of broad, dynamic growth to a more demanding environment, in which location, product structure, access to financing and a genuine response to the needs of buyers and tenants are becoming decisive.

The key conclusion from the report is clear: short-term oversupply in the sales offer does not eliminate the long-term housing deficit. In Poland’s largest cities, JLL estimates the real housing gap at around 540.000 units, with an additional deficit of 100.000-200.000 units resulting from the long-term impact of war-related migration from Ukraine.

The market has strong fundamentals, but it operates under different conditions

Poland remains the largest residential market in Central and Eastern Europe. According to JLL, the country has over 37 million inhabitants, while the six largest cities account for a significant share of development activity. In 2025, more than 51.000 apartments were completed in these cities, demonstrating the resilience of the development market and its ability to continue investment activity despite slower sales and more difficult financing conditions.

At the same time, Poland still has some of the least favourable housing conditions in the European Union. The report points to a low number of dwellings per 1.000 inhabitants, relatively small apartment sizes and the persistent problem of overcrowding. This is particularly important because it shows that demand is not driven solely by the aspiration to own property, but also by a real need to improve living conditions.

This picture is reinforced by demographic change. JLL highlights the growing number of households and the decline in the average number of people per household. Particularly important is the rise in single-person households, which the report identifies as the fastest-growing household type in Poland. In practice, this means that even with a stable or more slowly growing population, the need for housing may continue to increase.

Macroeconomics supports market stabilisation

The economic environment remains one of the key arguments supporting the resilience of Poland’s residential market. According to the data cited by JLL, Poland’s GDP grew by 3.6% in 2025, while the forecast for 2026 assumes growth of 3.8%. This is clearly above the expected growth rate for the European Union, which is projected at around 1-2% annually in the coming years.

The normalisation of inflation and monetary policy is also significant. After a period of sharp price growth and high interest rates, the National Bank of Poland reduced its reference rate to 4.0% at the end of 2025, followed by another cut in March 2026 to 3.75%. JLL notes that although further interest rate cuts are possible, a return to the conditions seen in 2020-2021 remains unlikely.

This is an important shift for the market. It means that developers, buyers and investors are now operating in different conditions than only a few years ago: financing is cheaper than at the peak of the cycle, but there is still no return to cheap money.

The key macroeconomic indicators highlighted in the JLL report are:

• Poland’s GDP: 3.6% in 2025 and a forecast 3.8% in 2026
• NBP reference rate: 3.75% after the March 2026 cut
• unemployment: around 5%, with the possibility of falling further below this level
• hourly wages have almost tripled since 2015, with forecasts assuming further growth of around 6% annually

From the perspective of the housing market, these figures do not suggest a crisis. They rather show an economy entering a more balanced phase after a period of major shocks: the pandemic, the war in Ukraine, the inflation spike and the rapid increase in the cost of money.

Development market: record-high offer and the return of credit-driven demand

The most visible phenomenon in the built-to-sell market is the increase in available supply. According to JLL, in the six largest cities the number of apartments available for sale reached 61,700 units in mid-2025 and around 63.500 units at the end of the year. This is a record level and has significantly changed the balance of power between developers and buyers.

However, this does not mean a collapse in sales. The report indicates that after a weak start to 2025, the second half of the year brought a clear recovery in demand, linked to interest rate cuts. Annual apartment sales across the six largest markets exceeded 41.000 units, representing an increase of around 4% compared with 2024.

This distinction matters: the market did not stop, but supply grew faster than sales. As a result, the key issue is no longer demand alone, but the pace at which available stock is absorbed.

The situation is not uniform across markets. JLL indicates that Warsaw and the Tri-City remain the most balanced, Wrocław is gradually reducing its surplus offer, while Kraków and Poznań are facing more visible supply pressure. The most difficult situation is in Łódź, where the report points to clear oversupply.

Apartment prices: stabilisation, not a correction

After years of dynamic price growth, 2025 brought a clear slowdown. According to JLL, average apartment prices in the six largest cities increased by around 1% year on year. In practice, this means stabilisation, especially compared with the previous decade, during which prices rose almost continuously.

At the end of 2025, average asking prices stood at approximately:

• Warsaw: above PLN 18.700 per sqm
• Tri-City: around PLN 17.800 per sqm
• Kraków: around PLN 16.900 per sqm
• Wrocław: around PLN 15.100 per sqm
• Poznań: around PLN 13.800 per sqm
• Łódź: around PLN 11.500 per sqm

Greater market transparency was also an important factor influencing pricing behaviour. The report indicates that the requirement to publish prices from September 2025 encouraged more competitive pricing strategies. Developers focused more often on the attractiveness of their offer and purchase terms, rather than on further price increases.

Mortgages: improved affordability, but no return to cheap money

The mortgage market clearly recovered in 2025. According to the report, the number of mortgage loans granted increased to 238.000, while their total value reached a record PLN 105.9 billion. At the same time, JLL notes that around 18% of lending activity consisted of refinancing existing loans, which should be taken into account when assessing real purchasing demand.

The most important change, however, concerns creditworthiness. The decline in interest rates on new mortgages from around 7.5% at the beginning of 2025 to around 6.3% at the end of the year improved the purchasing capacity of clients financing their purchase with a mortgage. With stable apartment prices, this effect has increased purchase affordability, although it has not restored the conditions seen during the period of record-low interest rates.

For developers, this means that buyers who had held back from purchasing in recent years may now be returning to the market. However, this group will be much more sensitive to price, payment terms and the total cost of purchase.

Rental is becoming a full-fledged pillar of the housing market

One of the strongest conclusions from the JLL report is the growing importance of the rental market. High financing costs have meant that in many cases renting remains cheaper than buying an apartment with mortgage financing. The report compares monthly rent with mortgage instalments and service charges for a 45 sqm apartment in Warsaw, indicating that the cost advantage of renting was still visible in Q4 2025.

At the same time, the supply of rental apartments remains limited. According to JLL, in January 2026 rents were 96% higher than in January 2021, while the number of rental listings was 53% lower than five years earlier. This is a strong signal: the rental market has not only grown in price terms, but has still not rebuilt its supply to the levels seen before the shocks of 2021-2022.

JLL also points out that in 2025 individual investors buying apartments for rental purposes became less active. If this trend continues, the inflow of new units into the private rental market will be limited, which may increase pressure on rents in both the private and institutional segments.

PRS: the sector is growing, but still remains marginal

The institutional rental sector in Poland is developing quickly, but its scale remains small compared with the overall market. At the end of 2025, Poland had almost 27.800 PRS apartments in operation, of which around 26% were introduced to the market in 2025 alone. Even so, PRS still accounts for less than 0.2% of Poland’s total housing stock.

JLL forecasts that the segment will grow to around 45.000 units within four years. This will still represent a low level of institutionalisation compared with Western European markets, but the pace of growth shows that the segment has already moved beyond the stage of testing the business model.

Warsaw remains the largest market, accounting for around 38% of operational PRS stock in Poland. Other important markets include Kraków with around 18%, Wrocław with 17% and Poznań with 13%.

Key PRS figures according to JLL:

• 27.760 operational units at the end of 2025
• 24% growth compared with December 2024
• around 4.900 units planned for launch in 2026
• forecast growth to around 45.000 units over the next four years
• occupancy levels in major cities ranging from 96.5% in Warsaw to 98.7% in Łódź

High occupancy is crucial here. It shows that despite higher rents compared with the traditional private rental market, professionally managed rental apartments address a real tenant need. JLL emphasises that PRS offers a higher standard of fit-out, better management and locations well connected to office hubs and universities.

PBSA: the largest investment gap in the living sector

The private student housing segment is one of the most underdeveloped areas of the market. Poland has around 1.3 million students, and forecasts from the Ministry of Science and Higher Education indicate further growth to around 1.4 million by 2030.

The number of international students is particularly important. In the 2024/2025 academic year, 108.600 international students studied in Poland, coming from 179 countries. They accounted for around 8.5% of the total student population, with the largest groups coming from Ukraine, Belarus and Turkey.

Despite such strong demand, the supply of modern student accommodation remains very limited. According to JLL, Poland has around 16.500 PBSA beds in operation, with another 7,700 in the pipeline. By comparison, private student accommodation accounts for around 1% of the total student population in Poland, while in the United Kingdom this figure is 15%.

The most telling indicator, however, is the coverage ratio for international students. In Poland, the number of PBSA beds corresponds to around 15% of the number of international students, compared with 60% in the United Kingdom, 66% in the Netherlands and 78% in Spain. Warsaw, despite attracting more than 30% of international students in Poland, offers only around 9% coverage for this group.

This means that PBSA is not a niche. It is a segment where the supply shortage is one of the most visible across the entire living sector.

Students, rental and product quality

The JLL report also shows that PBSA can be cost-competitive compared with PRS. In the analysis comparing the costs of single PBSA units and PRS studios, PBSA was cheaper in every analysed city. The difference ranged from 1% in Łódź to 12% in Kraków.

At the same time, occupancy levels in PBSA projects exceed 96%, reaching up to 98.3% in selected cities. This confirms that students, especially international students, are willing to pay for a product that is professional, safe, predictable and adapted to their lifestyle.

In this segment, the issue is not only the number of beds, but also the quality of the existing alternative. Public dormitories provide around 115.000 places, which means they can accommodate only around 9% of students in Poland. In addition, many of these facilities were built before the economic transformation and do not meet contemporary standards of privacy, comfort and functionality.

Institutional capital is returning to the market

The year 2025 was an important period for the investment market. According to JLL, transaction volume in the living sector exceeded EUR 100 million, excluding large JV and M&A transactions. The most important event, however, was the preliminary sale agreement for the Resi4Rent portfolio to TAG Immobilien, worth around EUR 565 million and covering 5,322 rental units in Poland’s six largest cities.

JLL describes this transaction as an important sign of the market’s maturation. The portfolio includes 18 projects, around 178.000 sqm of modern rental space and achieved approximately 98% occupancy. The transaction assumed a 6.3% NOI yield.

This is an important signal for the whole market: Polish PRS is no longer only a segment in the conceptual phase. It has become an asset class capable of attracting large institutional portfolio transactions.

Yields and Poland’s attractiveness compared with Europe

The JLL report notes that yield pricing in Poland’s living sector remains difficult due to the limited number of transactions and the high share of forward deals. Even so, JLL provides estimated levels for stabilised assets.

Estimated prime yields according to JLL:

• multifamily Warsaw: 5.25-5.50%
• multifamily regional cities: 5.50-5.75%
• student housing Warsaw: 5.75-6.00%
• student housing regional cities: 6.00-6.25%

Combined with the still limited scale of current supply, strong demand and a relatively investor-friendly regulatory environment, Poland remains a growth market for investors. JLL stresses that, unlike more mature Western European markets where institutional rental is already well developed, Poland still offers genuine room for expansion.

What does this mean for the residential market?

The most important conclusion from the JLL report is that the Polish residential market is not in a downturn, but in a phase of selective stabilisation. In the short term, a large number of apartments available for sale reduces price pressure and strengthens buyers’ negotiating position. In the long term, however, the housing deficit, urbanisation, demographic change and the growing role of rental continue to create very strong demand fundamentals.

For developers, this means the need for more precise investment planning. In a market with a larger choice of apartments, not every project will sell simply because it is new. The advantage will belong to projects that combine functional layouts, reasonable pricing and locations that respond to clients’ daily needs — close to public transport, services, workplaces, universities and basic infrastructure.

For institutional investors, Poland remains a market with a low level of saturation and high growth potential. This applies in particular to PRS and PBSA, where the relationship between demand and existing supply remains exceptionally favourable. High occupancy, the limited number of professional assets and growing transaction liquidity all strengthen the case for further capital allocation to the living sector.

Summary

The JLL report shows that the Polish residential market has entered a more mature and selective phase. Price stabilisation and the high number of apartments available for sale do not mean that the market’s potential has been exhausted, but rather that the competitive environment has changed. The market is no longer growing evenly — the quality of the project, the strength of the location, apartment functionality and pricing credibility are becoming increasingly important.

High supply in selected cities does not resolve the structural housing deficit. It rather shows that demand has become more demanding and that buyers are comparing available offers more carefully. In this environment, the advantage will go to projects that not only respond to the need to buy a home, but also clearly justify their value.

In the coming years, developers’ position will be determined not by the scale of the offer they bring to the market, but by the accuracy of their investment decisions. The winners will be those who can properly read the changing needs of buyers, tenants and investors — and translate them into a product that stands up through its location, layout, price and quality.

Source: JLL Report – Living Sector in Poland, April 2026